COVID-19 — Agriculture and Migration

The impact of COVID-19 has potential threat to both forward and backward linkages of agriculture in context of agri-migration nexus in Nepal. Shortage of quality seeds, fertilizers, labor constraints, probably disruption in remittances, increasing farmers expenses in health and daily consumables rather than investment in agriculture, all together the main producers will get hampered. The commodities stock piles and distribution by big firms and government targeted to selective beneficiaries could impact on the uniform distribution across the country.

The oil price has sharply declined, hence the livelihood of the migrant’s workers in the Gulf is in chaos. Meanwhile, alternative market of fossils might emerge soon. The immediate returned migrants from the India, internal urban migrants, and additionally potential international returned migrants might be in queue to come back home. The returned migrants will either engaged in agriculture or in tourism (more lately). Immediate involvement would be in staple/ commercial vegetables/ seeds, livestock and fisheries, integrated farming, exotic horticultural production, and the youths would apply overseas knowledge in agri-inputs, medicinal plants, organic production and value addition — processing, packaging, retail via small scale enterprises. The business environment is favorable, if the support from government continues in similar political context, or additional reforms. However any political conflicts will discourage youths, those returned migrants would start to search new destinations, for instance S. Korea, Malaysia, Japan, etc. Even more likely, after the foreign investment in China decline, India and Africa would be the next business hub for FDI, and Nepalese youths will once again move back to India & other new economic zones. The migration pattern of Indo-Nepal will mingle in short course of time in Political and Economic Boom, this is unstoppable.

As an immediate COVID-19 reliefs, their might be shortage of fertilizers and quality seeds, due to disruption in the supply chain at industrial scale. Due to decline in oil prices internationally, the fertilizer production shall not be hampered, but another matter of International policy, the stockpiles of inputs and commodities by the giant players and trade restrictions by International Governments will be challenging for the poor nations. Overall, the agricultural activities is going to take longer time for sound production and supply; the global economy, typically in agriculture, up to next 1 year in the best scenarios will be impacted. South Asia, typically BPL families, and even the middle class population faced challenges to pay home rents, mortgages, tuition, food supplies, health and medicines, etc. The pandemic will invite food shortages, food insecurity and hunger for next few quarters or for a year in the best scenario. Yet the situation is undetermined until the proper cure of COVID-19 is unearthed. The global political powerhouses are behind the scenes to control all the impacts; poor countries, migrant workers, homeless, slums, marginal farmers are the worst hit in this crisis.

Internally, at national level, the Government could focused on agriculture and livelihoods for youths, and the supports will continue, yet due to progressing political system and the governance issues, farmers might get hassle with the Governmental programmes, neither enough agricultural enterprises & consultancies are available or affordable. Government has to invest huge for at least 5 years programmes to reform all these. Hence, the I/NGOs sectors will once again be leading in supporting the livelihoods and agriculture programs to the rural communities. The empty villages and renewed houses, post earthquakes seems to be revived back in the track, even more strongly than before.

In the context of migration, there are challenges and opportunities for the Government and Private Sectors to jointly develop the programs for immediate increase of production, via supporting inputs and subsidies to the farmers. There are also an opportunities to tap the returned migrants to engaged in agripreneurship. The decline in remittance will limited most of the household demands up to daily consumables, retails goods. Rural population might rethink & revive self production in this crisis. The remittance uses in agriculture will more likely to trigger the rural population. In other words, government has tremendous opportunities to create hybrid programmes of remittance holders to invest in the small and medium enterprises, mostly in agricultural towns, closely linked with villages production hubs. Women friendly programmes such as support of gender friendly farm mechanization, women financial linkages, women cooperatives, SHGs, certifications and awareness, rural marketing, support to women families — left behind children health, educations, diets & meals etc. Women, elderly and children condition is expected to be improved in joint families in the context of returned migration pattern, the next bigger opportunities to boost farm production in any of the programmes in promising business model.

Way forward — To enhance farm production with full inputs supply & subsidies to as much as accessible infra-linked areas; developmental activities with private sectors in moderate to often far flung areas, jointly working with Government; Government & banking sectors avenues for subsidy loans; start-up & incubation culture among youths in value added industries; forecasting production and market, international consumables shall be restricted & exports design in favour to local value chain players; for the returned migrants, remittance and government support programmes in taxes exempt model; farmers awareness in trading and food value chain — value additional products, certification & marketing; enterprises & infrastructure development; women, left behind & gender friendly programs in easy execution model, and supports.

(The thoughts are personal).

Other data seemingly in above thought process:

ADB — 10 millions of people will loss job in COVID-19 crisis, lower income household are more likely to get stress in meeting increasing food prices. IFAD — COVID19 threatened the livelihoods of the poorest of the poor farmers who depends on agriculture. FAO — Reduction of remittance of migration workers could impact 1 billion dependents globally, dragging towards poverty and food insecurity. WFP — COVID-19, pandemic remarks not only health but also in a brink of hunger pandemic. CGIAR — Are analyzing COVID-19 impact, projected that it will hamper on staples and food production and processing, and disrupt food trades and supply. World Bank — Global remittance will decline by 20% due to COVID-19 pandemic. Food and commodity market will be effected for longer term. World Economic Forum — COVID-19 will worsen hunger in the developing nation. KATHMANDU POST — 1 lakhs migrants are more likely to return back home, and a country should prepare to cope up the crisis. Central Bank Nepal / Nepal Rastra Bank — Until March, money sent by migrants are not much changed but remittance more likely to reduce ahead.

Sanjeev Adhikari

26.4.2020